{"id":20967,"date":"2026-07-03T18:28:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T22:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/?p=20967"},"modified":"2026-07-03T18:29:58","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T22:29:58","slug":"what-if-wed-never-broken-away-from-the-brits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/what-if-wed-never-broken-away-from-the-brits\/","title":{"rendered":"What If We\u2019d Never Broken Away From the Brits?"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

Andrew Lawler
\nJuly 03, 2026<\/p>\n

Link to the story.<\/a><\/p>\n

On the 250th anniversary of independence, an edgy thought experiment about our nation\u2019s founding.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

MILLIONS OF US WILL SPEND SATURDAY lounging around a grill, eating ice cream, and watching fireworks. The Fourth of July is our midsummer festival in red, white, and blue. It is less fraught than preparing Thanksgiving dinner, much cheaper than Christmas, and far less stressful than the last-minute Halloween scramble to find the right costume.<\/span><\/p>\n

You don\u2019t have to like turkey, feign holiday cheer, or go hyperglycemic on candy corn to get into the Spirit of \u201976. You just sit in a lawn chair under a sprinkler with a beer. This year, you don\u2019t even have to learn to pronounce semiquincentennial, or even know what it means, to celebrate the holiday.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

But what if this Saturday were not the commemoration of the quarter-millennium birthday of the world\u2019s most famous democracy? What if John Adams had been told to let the adults in the Assembly Room in the Pennsylvania State House handle the volatile situation? What if, in other words, there had never been a United States of America?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Counterfactual history is a sport historians love to hate. Asking one what would have happened if Hitler had been assassinated in 1933 is like asking a weatherman precisely where the hurricane will come ashore. There are simply too many variables for any human brain\u2014or even the smartest AI assistant\u2014to crunch.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

But editing history\u2019s script is not only fun but useful. Answering what-ifs can root out our lazy assumptions, upset our comfortable myths, and puncture our fatalistic sense that the world is the way it is because of the way it was.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

So, then, consider what might have happened if John Hancock had never set his quill to that large piece of parchment (which, to be factual, he did on August 2, not July 4), or if that parchment had never been marked up in the first place. What would we be?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In a word: Canada.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

That is, we would be the United States, but with more equitable health care, the metric system, a shared capacity to sing the original lyrics to the tune of \u201cMy Country, \u2019Tis of Thee,\u201d and a far deeper appreciation for the sport of cricket. We would still be a free and independent nation, but one founded without the devastation of whole cities, the divisions that wrenched apart families, and the loss of more than 50,000 lives.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

All that\u2019s needed for this to be real history is a little sleight of hand.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

LET\u2019S RETURN TO THE START of 1776. Most members of Congress did not have independence on their radar. The whole point of establishing the assembly in Philadelphia and the Continental Army was not to create a new nation founded on\u00a0<\/span>radically new principles<\/span><\/span><\/a>. The purpose was to make the British repeal what the colonists called the Intolerable Acts.<\/span><\/p>\n

There was ample precedent. A decade before, street protests and economic boycotts twisted Parliament\u2019s arm, leading to the nullification of the hated Stamp Act. But by early 1775, that approach had failed to move the needle. Killing a few redcoats seemed the next obvious step to get London\u2019s full attention.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Fast-forward to the spring of 1776. Despite the bloodshed at Lexington and Bunker Hill the previous year, Congress remained deadlocked over whether to push for fresh peace talks or throw in the British Empire\u2019s towel altogether.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

It wouldn\u2019t take much to tip the scale toward negotiations.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Imagine that, on the night of May 6, Thomas Jefferson\u2019s always-frail wife again fell ill, forcing the Virginia delegate to postpone\u00a0<\/span>indefinitely\u00a0his planned trip to Philadelphia. Or imagine that George Washington quit in frustration after trying to reform an army he\u00a0described<\/span><\/a>\u00a0as \u201cwithout Order, Regularity & Discipline\u201d and \u201cno better than a Commission\u2019d Mob.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

You could also envision that the voluble Adams tragically suffered a deadly apoplectic fit after a long day exhorting his colleagues, as had another portly member, Hancock\u2019s predecessor Peyton Randolph. Instead of Jefferson\u2019s stirring words about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, we would instead know by heart the famous words of Pennsylvania\u2019s John Dickinson\u2014not\u00a0<\/span>spoken<\/span><\/a>\u00a0to the assembled members of Congress as part of a political speech, as happened in our real past, but instead intoned over the plain wooden coffin of his nemesis from Massachusetts.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe are not ready for a Rupture,\u201d Dickinson said. \u201cIt is Our Interest to keep Great Britain in the Opinion that We mean Reconciliation as long as possible.\u201d The cause of liberty, he added, \u201cshould breathe a sedate, yet fervent spirit, animating them to actions of prudence, justice, modesty, bravery, humanity and magnanimity.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Dickinson\u2019s eloquent call for a conciliatory approach may have won the day, then, overcoming the grumbles of the independence-backers, who found themselves divided and dispirited after the sudden loss of their spokesman. And thanks to negotiations undertaken\u00a0<\/span>in our counterfactual world\u00a0by a congressional delegation secretly sent to Halifax, Nova Scotia in June\u2014and a few well-placed bribes made by the same\u2014the British naval commander may have postponed the impending invasion of New York.<\/span><\/p>\n

With Boston already evacuated and the British fleet\u2019s disastrous loss at Charleston, the rebellious colonies were, in our real past, suddenly all but redcoat-free.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

IMAGINE, THEN, A HISTORY OF THE EVENTS that might have followed this opportune moment:<\/span><\/p>\n

That fragile peace in the summer of 1776 gave two Whig factions in Parliament time to strengthen and broaden their coalition with anxious London business interests smarting from the colonists\u2019 boycott. When word of the Halifax bribery scandal reached London, the uproar forced the resignation of Lord North and put King George III on the defensive.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

His militant policies discredited, the monarch had little choice but to offer the prime minister position to Edmund Burke, the Whig leader deeply sympathetic to the American cause. He and his supporters seized the moment, repealing some of the Intolerable Acts and approving a commission to recognize and meet with Congress to hash out an understanding on the rest.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

In a sumptuous ceremony at Buckingham House in London, Benjamin Franklin, representing the Americans, signed the final agreement with Burke, and the king gave his reluctant royal assent. These Articles of Reconciliation averted what some historians believe might have devolved into a bloody and costly civil war.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The American Parliament, as the Continental Congress was redubbed, was granted authority over most domestic matters\u2014including the sticky issue of taxation\u2014while London retained oversight of international trade and diplomacy. The Great Accord, as the July 4, 1777, document was popularly known, remains a day of thanksgiving and celebration on this side of the Atlantic.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The agreement slowed the colonists\u2019 westward rush, since London continued to discourage conflict between white settlers and the indigenous peoples under the king\u2019s protection. The Iroquois\u2019 Haudenosaunee Confederacy cannily took advantage of the colonial crisis in the 1770s to negotiate with Siouan, Muskogean, and Algonquian speakers to build a powerful Indian coalition to counter colonial expansion.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Their formidable military and diplomatic efforts, quietly supported by London, did not halt the Anglicization of the west, but they did prevent widespread violence, forced removal, and outright genocide of native peoples. Tribal leaders made marriage with leading colonial settlers a binding way for the latter to obtain land, blunting the onslaught by creating a dense web of relations.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The indigenous communities west of the Mississippi, guarded by a revitalized series of British frontier forts, also drew enslaved people from the colonial plantations to the east, frustrating efforts by white planters to make their vision of a vast \u2018cotton kingdom\u2019 in the South come true.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Whig victory in Parliament amplified the voices of those on its fringes who argued for extending Enlightenment ideas of liberty and religious toleration, including loyal American subjects like Jefferson and James Madison. At the same time, the ascendant Quakers in Pennsylvania and New England partnered with Britain\u2019s nascent abolitionists to combat the evils of slavery. The institution remained the fuel of the British Empire\u2019s economic engine until its abolition in 1833.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Ultimately, of course, Adams had his way and colonial independence was achieved, though thankfully through a peaceful and gradual process that avoided a devastating war. The 1931 Statute of Westminster granted the American colonies the ability to negotiate their own foreign treaties, and in 1982, they severed all legal ties with Britain while maintaining old affections, a grand cultural inheritance, and elements of civic ritual rooted in the earlier order.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Today, as we counterfactual Americans prepare to mark 249 years of the Great Accord by stocking up on cask ale and sausage rolls before the annual cricket match between Britain and America, let\u2019s take a moment to\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/em>honour<\/span>\u00a0those who rejected violence for negotiation, those who chose diplomacy over the blunt barrel of a musket. We can pause between innings to feel pride for both stripes and for the Union Jack that jointly adorn our flag.<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Not a bad alternative past, eh? Happy Fourth.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What If We\u2019d Never Broken Away From the Brits?
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As a journalist, he has written more than a thousand newspaper and magazine articles from more than two dozen countries. His byline has appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, National Geographic, Smithsonian, and many others. He is contributing writer for Science and contributing editor for Archaeology. Andrew\u2019s work has appeared several times in The Best of Science and Nature Writing.","sameAs":["http:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com","https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/AndrewLawlerAuthor","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/andrew-lawler-9b5a064a\/","https:\/\/x.com\/LawlerAndrew","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCsliIwdDC_wPYE01Se2zzAw"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20967"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20967\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20973,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20967\/revisions\/20973"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.andrewlawler.com\/content\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}